Forecasting the Cycles of Socio-Political and Ecology-Economic Development with the Assessment of the Impact on them of Changes in Solar Activity

Abstract

The author analyzes and confirms the author’s long-term forecasts of financial and socio-economic crises, based on a systematic theory of various cycles created over two centuries. There was given a comprehensive assessment of the processes of the transformation of regional financial crises into the global socio-economic crisis of 2008–2019, the phases of which were two waves with peaks of 2008–2009 and 2013–2014 that were observed during the Great Depression of 1929–1939 from the peaks of 1933–1934 and 1937–1938. As a result of the contradictions accumulated by the latter one, according to Kondratiev’s theory of long waves, in the years of 1939–1945 the Second World War occurred. The article outlines the history of the development of the system theory of cycles by A. Chizhevsky with the estimation of the influence of cosmophysical factors on the social processes on the Earth. There were made quantitative and qualitative estimations of sharp changes in solar activity (SA), its growth and decrease due to Wolf’s numbers. There was revealed the synchronization of catastrophic socio-political events on the Earth with maximum changes in solar activity by modules. During the three extreme years in a row (1989–1991), the highs of the SA which were synchronized with the processes of the collapse of the “socialist camp” and the USSR, identified the catastrophic days of socio-political events using weapons against the people at the reference points of the SA changes. Also, the cycles have been detected and, at one time, they had been predicted for the most crisis years of the economic recession in Ukraine after declaring its independence. Based on the theory of circularity of socio-economic crises of М. Тugan-Baranovsky and N. Kondratiev, there were identified 9-year cycles of the global economy in the last half-century with a 3-year old lag of their prevention by the mechanism of financial crises.Article received 24.04.2019