Forecasting the COVID-19 effects on energy poverty across EU member states

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is manifesting its devastating effects in multiple directions, even indirectly affecting the health of citizens, for instance, by increasing the level of energy poverty (EP). As part of the studies that are trying to frame the consequences of the pandemic, this paper aims to identify the effects on EP in the coming years in a bid to identify the countries of the European Union most affected and the time span necessary to return to a path to reduce EP. For this purpose, an analysis based on the supervised learning algorithms of dynamic factor models is carried out. The outcomes of this investigation show that the negative effects of the pandemic on the level of EP will be reabsorbed very slowly, not before 2025, and in any case with substantial differences between countries, further widening the gap between countries with low levels of EP and those with greater EP levels.