FORECASTING THE CONSUMPTION OF FUEL AND ENERGY RESOURCES FOR MILITARY UNITS IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Abstract

The Russian Arctic is one of the promising economic zones with a rich supply of natural resources. In a world in which territorial divisions, ideological rivalries, ethnic intolerance, and even nuclear proliferation can theoretically be normalized without the use of military force, it is the wealth of energy resources that remains the last casus belli that can lead to catastrophic consequences. That is why the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are faced with the task of protecting state sovereignty and maintaining security in the Arctic zone. To maintain the combat capability and readiness of a military facility, it is necessary to maintain stocks of fuel and energy resources at the required level. Forecasting the consumption of fuel and energy resources is the most important task. This methodology takes into account factors of various types: periodic (cyclical) and random, including those inherent in military production. All factors affect energy consumption to varying degrees.
 Cyclical factors are the most predictable and have a greater impact on the consumption of fuel and energy resources. Although random factors occupy a small share in the process of energy consumption, the amplitude of deviations can be quite significant.
 The methodology makes it possible to determine the consumption of fuel and energy resources in the context of the increasing complexity of the relationship between the economy and energy and the growing uncertainty of the future development of military units and military bases in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation based on the applied stochastic differential equation.
 Purpose. Develop a methodology for forecasting the consumption of fuel and energy resources for military units in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.
 Methodology in article economic-mathematical methods, and also statistical methods.
 Results: the most informative parameters were obtained, showing some aspects of the process of forecasting the consumption of fuel and energy resources.
 Scope of the results: it is advisable to apply the results obtained in the apartment-operational subdivisions of the logistics management bodies of the military districts to obtain predicted values of the consumption of fuel and energy resources (TER)at military infrastructure facilities (military camps).
 Practical implications it is expedient to apply the received results the economic subjects which are carrying out foreign economic activity, one of which elements are export operations.