Abstract
When developed countries introduce a new technology or product, technological forecasting techniques are used extensively to study the future market potential and market changes. As market followers, however, the developing countries are often interested in forecasting the technological capabilities of an industry to diagnose their possibility of success and competitive timing of product lines in the international arena. The goal of this paper is to suggest a method for forecasting the technological capabilities using growth curve models combined with the analytic hierarchy process and its application.
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