Forecasting the building deformation using the non-equidistance Grey Model (1,1)

Aleksandar Milutinović,Zoran Gojković,Zoran Gligorić,Aleksandar Ganić

doi:10.5937/podrad2036049m

Abstract

The Grey Model (GM) is a powerful tool in the Grey System Theory for estimating the behavior of partially unknown systems or systems with limited information. In the Grey System Theory, GM(1,1) is the most widely used model for prediction. The applicability of this model for the purpose of buildings deformation forecasting in a vertical plane was tested on the case of the deformation forecasting of the building of Faculty of Mining and Geology in Belgrade. The non-equidistance grey model (1,1) was utilized, since the measurements on which the model was formed, were performed in various time intervals.

Highlights

In the research of any system behavior analysis, application of the correct mathematical and evaluation methods based on the available information are very important
Non-equidistance Grey Model NGM(1,1) which stand for a single variable first order differential equation prediction model based on the Grey System Theory has already been proposed to predict and analyze the non-equidistance data series from uncertain system (Deng, 1985; Nagai & Yamaguchi, 2004)
The building of the Faculty of Mining and Geology is situated in the broader center of Belgrade, in a block limited by the following streets: Takovska, Dalmatinska, Djusina and 27. marta (Figure 1)

Summary

INTRODUCTION

In the research of any system behavior analysis, application of the correct mathematical and evaluation methods based on the available information are very important. If we take into consideration the behavior of monitored system is uncertain, as a result of unclear effects of other systems influencing the system being analyzed, capability to forecast the future states of the system can have the key role to prevent the collapse of the system. A system whose information is not clear at all is called a black system (a black box). A system whose information is partly clear or partly unclear is called a grey system. Incomplete information is the basic characteristic of the problems considered in grey systems theory (Lin, Chen & Liu, 2004)

University of Belgrade – Faculty of Mining and Geology

CASE STUDY

CONCLUSION