Forecasting the Allocation Ratio of Carbon Emission Allowance Currency for 2020 and 2030 in China

Carbon emission allowance allocation with cap and trade mechanism in air passenger transport

The allocation of carbon dioxide emission allowances has become one of the most important global issues. The main argument is the equity in the allocation of emission allowances. If the allocation is unfair, then economic development of some countries will be impeded. Therefore, to promote an emissions trading system, an equitable and reasonable allocation method that benefits every participant country is needed, so that countries will accept and implement the system accordingly.This study uses emission allowance as an input variable for evaluation and analysis. The output variables are energy consumption, government spending, and gross domestic product, based on the model developed by Gomes and Lins (2008). The study takes the zero sum game data envelopment analysis model to explore the allocation of emission allowances and the reallocation of emission allowances among 24 European Union members, hoping to find a comparatively fair and efficient allocation method for them. The empirical results show that first, the current allocation of emission allowances is inefficient. Second, after reallocation, those countries which implemented it most efficiently have more allowances. andThird, after the reallocation, G8 countries including the United Kingdom, France, and Italy have higher allowances than their initial allowences, implying that industrialized countries need more allowances to maintain their economic growth.

This paper discusses a carbon emission allowance allocation problem from a regional authority’s perspective under a fuzzy environment, which is a multi-objective optimization process. Uncertain parameters are depicted as fuzzy variables and fuzzy expected value notions are introduced to cope with the uncertainty. A fuzzy logic controlled genetic algorithm is designed as a solution method to solve the above problem. Finally, the results of a case study for the carbon emission allowance allocation problem about China Southern Power Grid Company Limited are proposed to show the practicality and efficiency of the optimization method.

Carbon emission allowance allocation with a mixed mechanism in air passenger transport

Analysis of driving factors and allocation of carbon emission allowance in China

Allocation of provincial carbon emission allowances under China's 2030 carbon peak target: A dynamic multi-criteria decision analysis method

This paper presents a mathematical approach to analyzing carbon abatement costs and the allocation of carbon emission allowances in China’s industrial sectors. We utilize input–output data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2009 and 2018 to estimate carbon abatement costs by applying the slack-based measure (SBM) efficiency model and its dual form. The SBM model captures inefficiencies and offers a rigorous framework for measuring abatement costs. Using these costs, we develop a centralized allocation data envelopment analysis (DEA) model, which maximizes sectoral benefits through optimal reallocation. This DEA model is formalized as a linear programming problem, with the aim of determining the efficient allocations of carbon allowances while maintaining the system’s economic productivity. Furthermore, we construct intertemporal, interregional, and spatiotemporal allocation DEA models to examine the dynamics of carbon emission allowance allocation over time, space, and combined spatiotemporal dimensions. These models offer insights into the efficiency of carbon markets under varying conditions. Our proposed new mathematical formulations reveal optimal allocation strategies that can balance emission reductions with industrial productivity. This study also provides novel mathematical frameworks for analyzing the carbon allowance distribution and contributions to both the theory and application of mathematical optimization in environmental policy design. Our findings reveal that China’s industrial carbon abatement costs exhibit significant interprovincial and regional differences. Developed provinces with higher levels of industrial development have higher carbon abatement costs, while provinces with less-developed industrial sectors have lower costs. Under the interregional allocation scenario of carbon emission allowances that consider abatement costs, developed provinces have smaller industrial carbon emission reductions, whereas less-developed provinces have larger reductions. In the intertemporal allocation scenario, provinces with larger industrial economies face greater emission reduction tasks. Under the combined interregional and intertemporal allocation scenario, industrial sectors in coastal developed provinces have lower carbon emission reductions, while those in inland less-developed provinces have higher reductions, mirroring the spatial allocation results of carbon emission allowances.

In order to achieve its 2030 carbon emission peak target, China needs to adjust and allocate energy consumption and initial carbon emission allowances for each province in a phased and planned manner. Thus, this study applied an improved dynamic undesirable zero-sum-gains slacks-based-measure (ZSG-SBM) model to evaluate provincial CO2 emission reduction scenarios and energy allocation for 2015–2019 and calculate the optimal allocation values of carbon emission allowances for each province in 2030. The results showed that China’s allocation efficiency values for total energy exhibited rising and then declining trends during 2015–2019 and that most input–output term efficiency values had room for improvement. Furthermore, after four adjustment iterations of the improved dynamic undesirable ZSG-SBM model, the modeled China achieved optimal carbon emission efficiency for the whole country. In the final model, 19 provinces were allowed to increase their carbon emissions in 2030, while the remaining 11 provinces needed to reduce their emissions. The findings of this paper can help regulators to establish fairer and more effective policy solutions to promote regional synergistic emission reduction, achieve the national goal of peak total carbon emissions, and promote the green, coordinated, and sustainable development of China’s economy.

An integrated zero-sum game and data envelopment analysis model for efficiency analysis and regional carbon emission allocation

Carbon emission allowance allocation based on a bi-level multi-objective model in maritime shipping

In order to promote a green economy, some countries have successively launched carbon markets, encouraging the development of clean energy through certain market mechanisms, and reducing overall social emissions. The introduction of carbon markets and carbon emission allowances may increase the production cost of high-emission entities and thus urges them to reduce their emissions. The allocation of carbon emission allowances affects the market entities greatly that different allocation approaches will lead to the inconsistent directions of market development. In-depth research on the distribution mechanism is studied in this paper. The influence of the Grandfathering approach and the Benchmark approach are analyzed from the perspective of a power producer. These two approaches are based on the historical situation of individuals and the standards of the whole industry, respectively. The history-based approach is more friendly to high-emission producers, but less encouraging in emissions reduction. Comparably, the standards-based approach may be more effective in encouraging a green economy. Based on a simulation platform where both the electricity market and the carbon market are included, this paper compares the above two allocation approaches in detail. The result may give an accurate guide to the producers.

A comparative analysis of China's provincial carbon emission allowances allocation schemes by 2030: A resource misallocation perspective

Carbon emissions and stock returns: Evidence from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Cooperative operation for multiple virtual power plants considering energy-carbon trading: A Nash bargaining model

Effects of European emission unit allowance auctions on corporate profitability