Abstract
The current insurance market situation is characterised by a high degree of instability. Many factors influence insurance company premiums, including the number of contracts, the claim repayment ratio, capital structure, underwriting profitability and risk. The insurance sector serves as a protective barrier for the country’s economy, defending it from various risks. At the same time, insurance company premiums are influenced by risks too. The number of research articles testifies to a stable interest in this problem. However, there is no technique for establishing the connection between the insurance premium and the many factors it is sensitive to. The article is devoted to the development of new models and, based on them, some digital technologies for forecasting agricultural insurance risk parameters. Based on a paradoxical theory of regulation and inno-diversification approach, an author’s model was developed for forecasting activity. It was used to do calculations of the main indicators of the agiructural risk insurance system. As a result, it became possible to trace the main patterns and tendencies in the development of the agricultural risk insurance system in Russia. Special attention was paid to the period after 2017 when it started to stabilise and recover after the crises as a consequence of nonoptimal managerial solution as refers to the inclusion of the agricultural risk insurance system in the “single subsidy”.
Highlights
Agriculture refers to a high-risk sector of the national economy, as it significantly depends on the conditions and final results of agricultural activities that are characterised by random factors, most often ecological and sanitary ones
Some lines including agricultural insurance were included in the “single subsidy” according to which regions got the right to redistribute the government support funds at their discretion, which abruptly reduced the agricultural risk insurance support
Digital technology built on the mathematical tool provided in the model algorithm can be used by all interested persons to forecast parameters of the agricultural risk insurance system in the Russian Federation
Summary
Agriculture refers to a high-risk sector of the national economy, as it significantly depends on the conditions and final results of agricultural activities that are characterised by random factors, most often ecological and sanitary ones. It is advisable to develop a mathematical model for the assessment of the condition and the agricultural risk insurance system development with the application of prospective analysis of the paradoxical theory of regulation in the agro-industrial complex proposed by M.K. Chernyakov and M.M. Chernyakova and tested in the dairy sector [7,8]. Portfolio of insurers - members of the National Association of Agriculture Insurers (NAAI) for the agricultural crop insurance with state aid, thous. Portfolio of insurers - members of the National Association of Agriculture Insurers (NAAI) for the agricultural crop insurance with state aid, RUB bln. Portfolio of insurers - members of the National Association of Agriculture Insurers (NAAI) for the livestock insurance with state aid, RUB bln. Chernyakova [7,8], it is necessary to present all parameters in a depersonalized form, as a real number matrix (Table 2) [9,10,11,12] for prospective analysis
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