Forecasting the adaptability of heat-loving crops to climate change in Ukraine

Abstract

Ukraine has a developed agricultural sector of the economy, where agriculture accounts for 10.4% of the gross domestic product. The relevance of the subject is due to the fact that agricultural production, which is of strategic importance for the country, is very sensitive to ongoing climate changes. Therewith, the crop industry is already undergoing a process of adaptation to the consequences of climate change and agrometeorological factors, which is manifested in the expansion of the range of cultivated crops. The purpose of this study was to predict the adaptability of heat-loving agricultural crops by their yield in various natural and climatic zones of Ukraine. In the course of the research, such methods as analysis, synthesis, factor analysis, correlationregression, and mathematical-statistical were used. Based on the results of the conducted studies, the expediency of considering climate change to obtain high yields of both conventional agricultural crops and heat-loving ones, which were not typical for Polissia and Forest-Steppe, is proved. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of crop yields, it is identified that it is advisable to reorient agricultural production to the cultivation of heat-loving crops – corn, sunflower, soy, and rapeseed in the Forest-Steppe, which in recent years give the same or slightly higher yields than in the south of Ukraine. Growing these crops in the Polissia zone is unprofitable – the yield is quite low, so in these regions, it is worth continuing to grow conventional crops (cereals, legumes, vegetables, potatoes). The established dependences of crop yields on climatic and agrometeorological factors allowed identifying a complex of factors that play a major role in the formation of the yield of specific crops. The developed crop yield models based on multiple correlation allow for predicting it. The results of the study can be useful in planning and optimising the activities of agricultural enterprises, and agriculture in general, in various natural and climatic zones of Ukraine, as a strategic branch of the economy