Abstract
BackgroundIn Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians.MethodWe constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis.Result & conclusionAs a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008–2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians.
Highlights
Health policy planning for human resources has become an internationally high priority [1]
The criterion was calculated based on the survey performed by the MHLW in 2010 [3]
Our model did not account for the shortage or maldistribution between regions
Summary
Health policy planning for human resources has become an internationally high priority [1]. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) reported that there is lack of absolute and relative numbers of physicians, as well as maldistribution among regions and medical departments. It has been suggested that the policy of decreasing medical school enrolment quotas is a major factor behind the absolute shortage of physicians [4,5]. In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians
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