Abstract
Objectives: To understand and forecast the evolution of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in Chile, and analyze alternative simulated scenarios to better predict alternative paths, in order to implement policy solutions to stop the spread and minimize damage.Methods: We have specified a novel multi-parameter generalized logistic growth model, which does not only look at the trend of the data, but also includes explanatory covariates, using a quasi-Poisson regression specification to account for overdispersion of the count data. We fitted our model to data from the onset of the disease (February 28) until September 15. Estimating the parameters from our model, we predicted the growth of the epidemic for the evolution of the disease until the end of October 2020. We also evaluated via simulations different fictional scenarios for the outcome of alternative policies (those analyses are included in the Supplementary Material).Results and Conclusions: The evolution of the disease has not followed an exponential growth, but rather, stabilized and moved downward after July 2020, starting to increase again after the implementation of the Step-by-Step policy. The lockdown policy implemented in the majority of the country has proven effective in stopping the spread, and the lockdown-relaxation policies, however gradual, appear to have caused an upward break in the trend.
Highlights
The pathogen severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-Cov-2 has caused the infection called Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), spreading worldwide in just a few months
This is a measure of the effects that the implementation or removal of lockdown policies have in the infection curve in the middle-to-short-run, understanding that new policy measures are likely to cause structural changes to the shape of the curve
We can observe that the estimated daily growth rate of COVID-19 in Chile is about 4.5%
Summary
The pathogen SARS-Cov-2 has caused the infection called Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), spreading worldwide in just a few months. On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, considering the occurrence of cases in five WHO regions within 1 month [1]. Chile is an interesting case study to monitor the evolution of COVID-19: It is not a developed country, in spite of its membership in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Income inequality has been a persistent discussion topic for decades [2]. Its authorities took early measures to augment emergency room capacity and to restrict individual freedom of movement, in order to be able to face the pandemic
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