Abstract
AbstractAmerican popular and Electoral College presidential elections are forecast for 2020 and 2024, employing auto‐regressive time series and cross‐section probit models. Predictions are between the Republican and Democratic parties, not named persons. Year 2020: In July 2020, the Democrats' two party popular vote was predicted to be 52.7%. They received 52.2%. The cross‐section Electoral College model showed Democrats could not win the White House without winning all of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada, which they did with 306 Electoral Votes. Year 2024: Democrats are predicted to win the 2024 presidency with 272 electoral votes, including Nevada's six votes and most of the large states they won in 2020. Democrats are predicted to win 53.7% of the popular vote. Fed's policies are expected to reduce inflation to 5.5%. Trump announced his candidacy in November 2022; however, other candidates are announcing for 2024. Trump's extreme positions in office and erratic behavior after losing in 2020 and then encouraging the January 6 insurrection are experiences Democrats can exploit. Events occurring after December 31, 2022, do not influence the predictions presented here.
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