Forecasting the 2019-ncov Epidemic in Wuhan by SEIR and Cellular Automata Model

Abstract

Since December 2019, Wuhan has became an outbreak epicentre of the novel coronavirus pneumonia. This study inferred the epidemic spread in Wuhan, which is of great importance for government immediately deployed mitigation interventions. In view of the fact that the virus is infectious during the incubation period, we added new variables to the SEIR model. We used the data published by Wuhan government from Dec 8, 2019, to Feb 4, 2020 to forecast the spreading trend and the number of infected people, then simulated the results of different government control efforts by changing the control variables. Furthermore, we used mathematical formulas to infer the basic reproduction number, and then calculated the probability of the neighbor being infected at each time step, simulated the epidemic course of epidemic by using the cellular automata model. Our finding suggested that the epidemic outbreak earlier under the government’s powerful control measures and the outbreak period begin on mid-January, then reach a peak on the mid-February. The cumulative number of infections in Wuhan would be controlled at 58310. More importantly, The basic reproduction number is 3.13, which indicated that the virus is high risk. Simultaneously, the cellular automata model is very suitable for simulating the spread course after the public health interventions.