Abstract
Abstract. Temperate alpine glacier survival is dependent on the consistent presence of an accumulation zone. Frequent low accumulation area ratio values, below 30%, indicate the lack of a consistent accumulation zone, which leads to substantial thinning of the glacier in the accumulation zone. This thinning is often evident from substantial marginal recession, emergence of new rock outcrops and surface elevation decline in the accumulation zone. In the North Cascades 9 of the 12 examined glaciers exhibit characteristics of substantial accumulation zone thinning; marginal recession or emergent bedrock areas in the accumulation zone. The longitudinal profile thinning factor, f, which is a measure of the ratio of thinning in the accumulation zone to that at the terminus, is above 0.6 for all glaciers exhibiting accumulation zone thinning characteristics. The ratio of accumulation zone thinning to cumulative mass balance is above 0.5 for glacier experiencing substantial accumulation zone thinning. Without a consistent accumulation zone these glaciers are forecast not to survive the current climate or future additional warming. The results vary considerably with adjacent glaciers having a different survival forecast. This emphasizes the danger of extrapolating survival from one glacier to the next.
Highlights
Glaciers have been studied as sensitive indicators of climate for more than a century and are part of the Global Climate Observing System (Haeberli et al, 2000)
Observations of alpine glaciers most commonly focus on changes in terminus position, to identify glacier response to climate changes (Oerlemans, 1994) and mass balance to assess annual volume change (WGMS, 2008)
The goal of this paper is to develop a method of forecasting temperate alpine glacier survival utilizing field observations in the accumulation zone
Summary
Glaciers have been studied as sensitive indicators of climate for more than a century and are part of the Global Climate Observing System (Haeberli et al, 2000). Observations of alpine glaciers most commonly focus on changes in terminus position, to identify glacier response to climate changes (Oerlemans, 1994) and mass balance to assess annual volume change (WGMS, 2008). The lack of a consistent accumulation zone will lead to the failure of a temperate alpine glacier to survive. Alpine glacier runoff is at a maximum during warm, dry period when other sources of contribution are at a minimum Their disappearance will have large economic and societal impacts, for example on the hydrologic regime, hydropower, tourism, fishing, agriculture, and natural hazards (Post et al, 1971; Hock, 2006). Recent climate change has caused ubiquitous retreat of Pacific Northwest glaciers (Pelto and Hedlund, 2001; Key et al, 2002).
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