Forecasting stock price using integrated artificial neural network and metaheuristic algorithms compared to time series models.

Abstract

Today, stock market has important function and it can be a place as a measure of economic position. People can earn a lot of money and return by investing their money in the stock exchange market. But it is not easy because many factors should be considered. So, there are many ways to predict the movement of share price. The main goal of this article is to predict stock price indices using artificial neural network (ANN) and train it with some new metaheuristic algorithms such as social spider optimization (SSO) and bat algorithm (BA). We used some technical indicators as input variables. Then, we used genetic algorithms (GA) as a heuristic algorithm for feature selection and choosing the best and most related indicators. We used some loss functions such as mean absolute error (MAE) as error evaluation criteria. On the other hand, we used some time series models forecasting like ARMA and ARIMA for prediction of stock price. Finally, we compared the results with each other means ANN-Metaheuristic algorithms and time series models. The statistical population of research have five most important and international indices which were S&P500, DAX, FTSE100, Nasdaq and DJI.