Forecasting Stock Market Price of Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Platinum by Using Double Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Linear Trend and Random Walk

Abstract

Forecasting is an approach that has been used widely for ages. However, forecasting stock market price is a challenging task to be completed as the data fluctuates rapidly along the time and can be influenced by a variety of factors. Hence, this study aims to forecast the stock market price of gold, silver, crude oil and platinum by using Double Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Linear Trend and Random Walk. Then, measures the forecast model obtained by using Sum Square Error, Mean Square Error and Root Mean Square Error which later can be used in determining the best forecasting method. Based on the analysis done, the result shows that Holt’s Linear Trend is the better forecasting method compared to Double Exponential Smoothing and Random Walk.