Forecasting Stock Market Indices Using Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

In recent years machine learning algorithms have become a very popular tool for analysing financial data and forecasting stock prices. The goal of this article is to forecast five major stock market indexes (DAX, Dow Jones, NASDAQ, Nikkei 225 and S&P 500) using machine learning algorithms (Linear regression, Gaussian Processes, SMOreg and neural network Multilayer Perceptron) on historical data covering the period February 1, 2010, to January 31, 2020. The forecasts were made by using historical data in different base period lengths and forecasting horizons. The precision of machine learning algorithms was evaluated with the help of error metrics. The results of the analysis have shown that machine learning algorithms achieved highly accurate forecasting performance. The overall precision of all algorithms was better for shorter base period lengths and forecast horizons. The results obtained from this analysis could help investors in determining their optimal investment strategy. Stock price prediction remains, however, one of the most complex issues in the field of finance.