Abstract
Chinese steel demand will grow from 60 million tons in the late 1980s to 100 million tons by the year 2000. The Chinese steel market will then rank equal with markets in Japan, the USA and the European Community. Chinese steel demand is predicted to stay below the level of 1988 until 1992. After a strong recovery in 1992-93, steel demand will then grow at 5% per annum in the second half of the 1990s. These forecasts are generated by a vector autoregressive model of the Chinese economy. The VAR models the joint serial correlation between output, price level, money stock, investment and steel.
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