Abstract

In this study, the rate of growth of state and local populations in the United States is related to the growth rate of national employment, and to demographic and economic features of the regions concerned, in order to make more realistic long-term population projections. Both natural increase and migration are taken into account in the model developed. "The model is estimated for two regions, the El Paso, TX, standard metropolitan statistical area (SMSA) and the State of New Mexico. Several statistical problems arise because of the limited number of available time-series observations. Fully dynamic historical simulations track the population quite closely, in one case never differing from the actual value by more than 1.17% and in the other never differing by more than 1.36%."

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