Forecasting South Carolina Tomato Prices Prior to Planting

Abstract

South Carolina producers supply tomatoes on a national scale during an approximately five-week market window centered in June. This market window follows a six-month period dominated by Florida production and to a lesser extent Mexican exports. Even though South Carolina is the major East Coast supplier of tomatoes during its market window, the success or failure of South Carolina marketings depends on the stage set by Florida and Mexico. That is, the price level obtained by South Carolina producers for their tomatoes tends to be influenced by the volume of tomatoes delivered to market prior to South Carolina's harvest. South Carolina, Florida, and Mexico serve many of the same markets (i.e., Northeast terminal markets). As a result, the influence of the volume prior to South Carolina's harvest on the state's average tomato price can be used to provide farmers with a price estimate before planting. Specifically, a model is constructed to forecast the average spring tomato price received by South Carolina producers. This forecast must be available to producers by mid-February if it is to serve as a decision-making tool.