Forecasting solar energetic proton integral fluxes with bi-directional long short-term memory neural networks

Abstract

Solar energetic particles are mainly protons and originate from the Sun during solar flares or coronal shock waves. Forecasting the Solar Energetic Protons (SEP) flux is critical for several operational sectors, such as communication and navigation systems, space exploration missions, and aviation flights, as the hazardous radiation may endanger astronauts’, aviation crew, and passengers’ health, the delicate electronic components of satellites, space stations, and ground power stations. Therefore, the prediction of the SEP flux is of high importance to our lives and may help mitigate the negative impacts of one of the serious space weather transient phenomena on the near-Earth space environment. Numerous SEP prediction models are being developed with a variety of approaches, such as empirical models, probabilistic models, physics-based models, and AI-based models. In this work, we use the bidirectional long short-term memory (BiLSTM) neural network model architecture to train SEP forecasting models for three standard integral GOES channels (>10 MeV, >30 MeV, >60 MeV) with three forecast windows (1-day, 2-day, and 3-day ahead) based on daily data obtained from the OMNIWeb database from 1976 to 2019. As the SEP variability is modulated by the solar cycle, we select input parameters that capture the short-term, typically within a span of a few hours, and long-term, typically spanning several days, fluctuations in solar activity. We take the F10.7 index, the sunspot number, the time series of the logarithm of the X-ray flux, the solar wind speed, and the average strength of the interplanetary magnetic field as input parameters to our model. The results are validated with an out-of-sample testing set and benchmarked with other types of models.