Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events

Abstract

Research Article| April 01, 1998 Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events David M. Pyle David M. Pyle 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EQ, United Kingdom Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Geology (1998) 26 (4): 367–370. https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1998)026<0367:FSARTO>2.3.CO;2 Article history first online: 02 Jun 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share MailTo Twitter LinkedIn Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation David M. Pyle; Forecasting sizes and repose times of future extreme volcanic events. Geology 1998;; 26 (4): 367–370. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/0091-7613(1998)026<0367:FSARTO>2.3.CO;2 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract By using rank-order statistics, it is possible to predict the likely scale of future “extreme” volcanic events (eruptions larger than a given threshold size, or repose periods longer than a given time) on both a local and global scale. When ranked by diminishing size, the largest and most devastating volcanic eruptions in terms of volume, or consequent fatalities, can be described by power-law functions. In turn, this approach permits projection of, for example, (1) the likely size of the next volcanic eruption larger than the A.D. 1815 eruption of Tambora (∼90 km3 of magma); (2) the size of the next eruption of the Taupo volcano, New Zealand, that is larger than the eruption of A.D. 186 (∼82 km3 of tephra); and (3) the likely duration of the current repose period of the Taupo volcano (4000 ± 1200 years). This approach can also be employed on shorter time scales, for example to provide quantitative criteria to assess when a period of activity has ceased. With the establishment of procedures for making projections such as these, volcano hazard assessment may be placed onto a more rigorous and quantitative basis. This content is PDF only. Please click on the PDF icon to access. First Page Preview Close Modal You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.