Abstract
ABSTRACTMigration to and from Scotland might be affected by the outcome of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom. This potential change in migration has not been thoroughly analysed to date. The aim of this paper is thus to present a set of predictions of the possible effects of Scottish independence on internal and international migration. In particular, different sources of uncertainty of future migration flows are examined. The presented forecasts are based on the available historical data on migration flows, as well as on the opinions of a panel of experts on future migration trends. Bayesian statistical inference is used to combine different sources of uncertainty in a coherent manner. The results indicate that there is substantial uncertainty about future migration to and from Scotland, which increases with the forecast horizon. The most uncertain flow is international immigration to Scotland. Emigration from Scotland is more likely than not to increase in the near future, whereas migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK is expected to remain at similar levels to the present, irrespective of the outcome of the 2014 independence referendum. © 2014 The Authors. Population, Space and Place Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Highlights
Accepted 22 March 2014Keywords: Bayesian modelling; constitutional referendum; migration; Scotland; time series; uncertaintyI n the context of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom (UK), the aim of this paper is to forecast how Scottish independence might impact migration in Scotland, both within the boundaries of the current UK, as well as internationally
The results of the Delphi survey indicate that the impact of Scottish independence on migration may largely depend on the group of migrants in question, with the migration of students and young workers being potentially the most
The predictions of Scottish migration presented in this paper are based on the results of the Bayesian forecasting model and take into account the available historical data, expert views, and predictions of the outcome of the referendum on independence, based on the opinion poll data
Summary
Accepted 22 March 2014I n the context of the 2014 Scottish referendum on the constitutional future of the United Kingdom (UK), the aim of this paper is to forecast how Scottish independence might impact migration in Scotland, both within the boundaries of the current UK, as well as internationally. The presented forecasts of migration are based on two key sources: the historical statistical data on Scottish migration and a Delphi survey amongst 12 experts, concerning the future migration trends. The forecasts, with a horizon of 2021, demonstrate the high uncertainty of future Scottish migration. Migration is the most uncertain – and barely predictable – component of the population change; forecasting it requires a careful assessment of the uncertainty The Reserved Matters include, amongst others, defence, foreign policy, benefits, oil, gas and electricity, and immigration (Scottish Parliament, 2014). As set out in the Scottish Government (2013) White Paper Scotland’s Future, if the majority of voters answer positively, from 24 March 2016, Scotland will be able to decide about all Reserved Matters, while the monarch of the UK will remain the head of state
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