Forecasting Russian Food Exports in the Face of Uncertainty Using the Input-Output Method

Abstract

The presented study examines the conditions and factors for the implementation of national projects in Russia during the transition towards a digital economy. Particular attention is paid to the use of the input-output method in forecasting the final operating results of the Russian agro-food industry, with a focus on identifying key factors for the growth of competitive food exports in the medium term.Aim. The study aims to analyze the specific aspects of forecasting Russian food exports in the face of uncertainty using the input-output method.Tasks. The authors substantiate the need to use the input-output method for the scientific analysis of management decisions in the field of foreign economic activity and identify the specific features of a new approach to forecasting food exports in the face of uncertainty.Methods. The methodology used in this study is determined by the increasing uncertainty of foreign economic relations, which calls for modern economic and mathematical methods in forecasting. The authors propose using their own modification of the symmetrical input-output table of the Russian agro-food industry and the method of dynamic data visualization to examine processes with a high level of uncertainty.Results. The study describes the conditions and factors for the growth of Russian food exports in the context of increasing uncertainty in the development of world trade; substantiates the necessity and presents the results of the transformation of operation of public and commercial organizations engaged in exports; proposes a systems approach to forecasting the vector of the final product of the Russian agro-food industry and the vector of exports as its component that would ensure the implementation of national projects to improve the population's quality of life; estimates the probability of sustainable growth of Russian food exports in the medium term.Conclusions. In the context of crisis phenomena in the world economy, the Russian export management system offers new forms of support for exporters through digital transformation of services, diversification of traditional foreign relations and state export support measures, ensures the dissemination of new efficient business practices and development of an export support strategy for the post-crisis period. By using the input-output method in the forecasting of food exports, it is possible to comprehensively substantiate a system of national projects aimed at increasing the population's quality of life and strengthening the country's food security. To justify forecasts amid the increasing uncertainty in the development of foreign economic relations, it is necessary to use data visualization over time to estimate the probability of achieving the parameters of national projects in the medium term.