Forecasting rice production in Jigawa State, Nigeria using fuzzy inference system

Abstract

In this work, we used fuzzy inference system to forecast rice production covering the period 2021-2030 in Jigawa state, Nigeria. This is done by designing a fuzzy inference system using MATLAB. The system consists of two input functions and a single output function. Each function has its membership functions from which 49 inference rules of the system were formed. Three variables were considered in the course of this research. The variables are rainfall, land and rice production. Furthermore, linguistic variables were defined on each input. A rule based system was then formed which is defuzzified and a crisp value is obtained as the forecasted value. The result of this research shows that in 2022, 177950ha is required with 873mm of rainfall to produce 1070000TN of rice. Similarly, prediction is made of the required area, rainfall and rice yield up to 2030 in Jigawa state.