Forecasting regional water demand using multi-fidelity data and harris hawks optimization of generalized regression neural network models – A case study of Heilongjiang Province, China

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of water demand plays a crucial role in decision makers to effectively allocate regional water resources and promotes the rational development and utilization of water resources. To address the challenges posed by limited raw data availability and the difficulty in selecting parameters for water demand forecasting models, this study proposes a coupled model called MF-HHO-GRNN (Multi-Fidelity Data, Hybrid Harris Hawks Optimization, and Generalized Regression Neural Network). Initially, multi-fidelity data was constructed employing water demand factor data for Heilongjiang Province, China (1999–2020) as high-fidelity data, alongside data from Liaoning and Jilin Provinces of China as low-fidelity data. Adaptive boosting algorithms, data concatenation, and data dimensionality reduction techniques were employed to construct multi-fidelity data, thereby improving the availability of the original data. Subsequently, Harris hawk optimization algorithms were implemented to optimize the smoothing factor of the GRNN to resolve the challenge of selecting suitable parameters for water demand forecasting models. Finally, the MF-HHO-GRNN model was compared with other prediction models to analyze the prediction accuracy. The optimized MF-HHO-GRNN model meeting accuracy requirements was utilized to forecast agricultural irrigation, industrial, domestic, ecological water demand, and total water demand in Heilongjiang Province for the next 5 years. Results demonstrated that the proposed MF-HHO-GRNN model attained predictive accuracy of 98 %, 98 %, and 97 % for total water demand under three distinct time horizons (1 year, 3 years, and 5 years), proving excellent predictive capabilities. Furthermore, a comprehensive comparison was made between the predicted total water demand and user-specific water demands for the next 5 years in Heilongjiang Province and the regional development plans. The results showed that the predictions of the coupled model aligned with the future development trends of Heilongjiang Province, validating the practicality of the MF-HHO-GRNN model. This study provides decision-makers with an effective method for forecasting water demand, contributing to the future realization of more intelligent and accurate water resource management and decision-making.