Forecasting promising technology using analysis of patent information: Focused on next generation mobile communications

Abstract

In order to forecast promising technologies in the field of next generation mobile communication, various patent indicators were analyzed such as citation per patent, patent family information, patent share, increase rate, and patent activity. These indicators were quantified into several indexes and then integrated into an evaluation score to provide promising technologies. As a result of the suggested patent analysis, four technologies out of twenty two in details classification were selected, which showed outstanding technology competitiveness, high patent share and increasing rates as well as high recent-patent-ratios and triad-patent-family-ratios. Each of the selected technologies scored more than 10 points in total, and the following four technologies were suggested as promising ones in the field of next generation mobile communication: 1) 3GPP based mobile communication, 2) beyond 4G mobile communication, 3) IEEE 802.16 based mobile communication, which are in medium classification of broadband mobile communication system, and 4) testing/certification system of mobile communication, which is in medium classification of mobile communication testing/certification system.