Forecasting project duration using risk-based earned duration management

Abstract

Earned duration management (EDM) is an extension of earned value management (EVM) in which the schedule performance of the project is evaluated using time-based data with no dependency on project cost data. While the use of EDM leads to a more accurate and realistic performance evaluation of the project schedule, it, however, does not differentiate between critical and non-critical activities and their related risk factors. This can lead to misleading information in cases where critical activities are behind schedule. Accordingly, this paper presents a new risk-based earned duration management model (RBEDM) for monitoring and estimating schedule performance of projects considering critical activities only and their associated risk factors. The contribution of this research to the body of knowledge lies in its newly introduced risk adjustment factor (RAFcr) which quantifies the impact of future uncertainties associated with critical activities in estimating project duration at completion. The introduced risk adjustment factor addresses the main drawback of EDM for its reliance only in past performance data. A numerical example from the literature is utilized to highlight the limitations of the existing models and demonstrate the capability of the developed model in monitoring and estimating a more accurate and realistic schedule performance.