Forecasting Prices and Production of Pulses in Faisalabad Market, Pakistan

Abstract

Forecasting values of prices and production are important for value chain actors because they can plan their activities while considering these values in mind for improving profitability. The present study is designed to determine forecasting values of production and prices of mung bean, lentil and chickpeas using arrival quantity of pulses in the big market of pulses in Punjab, i.e. Faisalabad. Similarly price data is used to forecast future prices of pulses. ARIMA model is employed to determine forecasting arrival quantities and prices of pulses using monthly data from January, 2018 to June, 2023. Results show that there is no smooth price increases in mung beans during different months of a year. A declining value of lentil and chickpeas is an alarming indications for all value chain actors. Estimated values based on ARIMA models for price and arrival quantities of pulses have important implications for the producers and wholesalers dealing in pulses particularly chickpeas, mung beans and lentil. A declining forecasting value of lentil and chickpeas leaves a serious thought on the sustainability of value chain of these pulses in the province. A declining supply in the market with an increase in the price of lentil in future will affect stakeholders of supply chain of lentil.