Forecasting Petroleum Product Prices In the Philippines

Abstract

Objectives: Petroleum oil prices are determined by many factors and have a big impact on the global environment and economy. This study aims to forecast the Petroleum oil prices for 2013 to 2016. Methods/Statistical Analysis: The Premium Gasoline Price is forecasted using the factors: Crude Oil Prices in Dubai, Foreign Exchange, and Consumer Price Index; the Unleaded Gasoline Price is forecasted using the factors: Crude Oil Prices in Dubai, and Consumer Price Index; the Regular Gasoline is forecasted using the factors: Crude Oil Prices in Dubai, Consumer Price Index, and Producer Price Index; the AV Turbo is forecasted using the factors: Crude Oil Prices in Dubai, Consumer Price Index, and Inflation Rate; the Kerosene is forecasted using the factors: Crude Oil Prices in Dubai, Consumer Price Index, and Inflation Rate; the Diesel Oil is forecasted using the factors: Crude Oil Prices in Dubai, and Inflation Rate; the Fuel Oil is forecasted using the factors: Crude Oil Prices in Dubai, Inflation Rate, and Purchasing Power of Peso. The researchers used the monthly data of the variables starting from January 2001 to December 2012, which were gathered from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Index Mundi and Department of Energy. In forecasting the dependent variable, the researchers used the Multiple Linear Regression. Findings: Findings reveals that the six independent variables such as Crude Oil Price, Inflation Rate, Purchasing Power of Peso, Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and Foreign Exchange have a significant relationship with each petroleum product prices. Application/Improvements: This paper will help the government in monitoring the Petroleum Products Prices. Keywords: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Dubai Crude Oil, Forecasting, Multiple Linear Regressions, Petroleum Oil Prices