Forecasting operating parameters of personal households

Abstract

Personal subsidiary plots in the Russian agrarian economy conditions play a significant role. In the Samara region, they provide for the production of about half of livestock products, potatoes, vegetables, fruits and berries, which is especially important for fulfilling the parameters of the new Concept of Food Security of the Russian Federation, adopted in January 2020. The aim of the work is to study personal subsidiary farms in the Samara region as one of the most important sources of food in the region and determine the parameters for predicting their development in the short term in order to formulate a state policy to support the formation of food security in the region. As part of the study, econometric models were built for forecasting the production of the main types of agricultural products in private household plots using the example of the livestock industry. Factors influencing the number of cattle and pigs in all typical settlements were identified. State support measures are proposed to increase the number of these groups of animals in the sector of personal subsidiary plots. The number of cattle is influenced by the agricultural employment of the owners of private household plots, the available livestock of other types of farm animals, and the size of the land plot. The number of pigs is mainly influenced by work in an agricultural enterprise.