Forecasting oil spill movement through trajectory modeling: a case study from Bay of Bengal, India

Abstract

This paper discusses the prediction of oil spill movement using a trajectory model in case of a possible oil spill in the Bay of Bengal, off Odisha coast. Ten thousand barrels of medium crude oil assumed to have spilled into the sea at a location about 85 km away from the beach. A trajectory model was simulated to understand the movement of oil pollutants for a random date using GNOME, developed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This study analyzed a few years of ocean current and wind data for better parameterization of the trajectory model and simulated several scenarios using varying wind speeds and directions. The result showed that wind speed and direction have a significant role in the oil spill movement. One of the scenarios suggests that within 29 h of the spill, oil pollutant will reach coast affecting a considerable area. The Devi estuary and Mahanadi estuary, which host extensive mangroves, various species of flora and fauna, will be affected by the above spill. This study, for the first time, has provided an understanding of oil spill forecasting and trajectory modeling for Odisha coast.