Abstract
With the large-scale integration of wind generation into the power grid, violent wind speed fluctuation will cause wind power ramp events that can affect the safe and stable operation of power systems. In this article, a forecasting method for day-ahead ramp events is proposed based on wind speed event definition and profile analysis. Firstly, event-based K-means (EB-K) clustering is used to preprocess historical wind speed. Typical event indexes, such as change rate, amplitude, and time intervals are then extensively used to describe ramp event characteristics and decrease the computational burden for the following event identification within given intervals. Then, the similarity of wind power event set is obtained through empirical probability estimation of successive history ramp events. Typical event clustering identification (TECI) algorithm based on EB-K clustering, wind capacity events, and event cluster profiles is proposed to search the maximum occurrence probability for historical data with the similarity indicator. Finally, a case study on a practical farm in Hebei, China is used to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of wind capacity ramp event forecasting by using TECI.
Highlights
Wind energy has achieved rapid development in recent years worldwide [1]
To guarantee forecasting accuracy for ramp events, reduce the computational burden, this article proposes a new typical event clustering identification (TECI) algorithm in event sets for the sequence of wind capacity ramp events, which is different from the point-based forecasting and single event analysis methods
̄i=1 θi∈Gi θi − θi Algorithm 1 is based on the event-based K-means (EB-K) clustering, which is used to generate a key pattern of wind capacity ramp events
Summary
Ramp amplitude of the key wind capacity event pattern Change rate of the key wind capacity event pattern Ramp amplitude of the wind capacity event sequence Change rate of the wind capacity event sequence Relation between history actual ramp event sets and forecasting ramp event sets Occurrence probability of ramp event set i Probability of a ramp event at time t0 Amplitude of the ramp event during the time interval (m,m+n)
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