Abstract
The aim of this study is forecasting of Turkey’s electricity generation and consumption for the period 2017-2027. To achieve this, Turkey’s electricity generation and consumption for the period 1996-2016 was modelled using Grey prediction method GM(1,1). Results showed that the small error probability (p) and posterior error ratio (C) values of GM(1,1) model for Turkey’s electricity generation were obtained as 0.12 and 0.97, respectively, and 0.11 and 0.97, respectively for Turkey’s electricity consumption. So, the level of established GM(1,1) models for Turkey’s electricity generation and Turkey’s electricity consumption is in good level. Additionally, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of GM(1,1) models for Turkey’s electricity generation and consumption were obtained as 3.12% and 3.08%, respectively. Results of F-test showed that p-value of GM(1,1) model for Turkey’s electricity generation and consumption was 0.48. According to these results, GM(1,1) models are suitable for prediction of Turkey’s electricity generation and consumption. Furthermore, the average annual grow rates of Turkey’s electricity generation and consumption for the period 2017-2027 were forecasted as 5.25% and 5.58%, respectively. In addition to this, Turkey’s electricity generation and consumption were forecasted as 405310GWh and 344672GWh, respectively, for 2023.
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
