Forecasting of Traffic Accident in Shanxi Province Based on Grey System Theory

Abstract

Based on grey system theory to analyze traffic accidents occurred in Shanxi province from 2005 to 2010, the grey models-the model GM(1,1) and the model GM(1,N) for forecasting traffic accidents are built. The model GM(1,1) is the classical and basal grey model. The model GM(1,N) is more complicated than the model GM(1,1). It needs to make Grey relational analysis to the influence factors for traffic accidents. The objective in this study is twofold. The first is to forecast the traffic accidents in Shanxi province by use the two grey models respectively. The second is to compare the forecasting results of the two grey models.