Forecasting of the Socio-Economic Damage Resulting from Outbreaks of Infectious Diseases, by the Example of Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever

Abstract

Objective of the study was to develop a method of assessment and forecasting of socio-economic damage inflicted by the outbreaks of infectious diseases using DALY index by the example of Crimean hemorrhagic fever. WHO expert-designed DALY index was adapted for use in the territory of the Russian Federation with due account of GDP values and age distribution among the population. Put forward was a scheme for prognostication of a possible social damage caused by infectious disease outbreak, expressed in the aggregate number of wasted years of productive life and economic loss resulted from GDP decrement. The method developed can be used for forecasting of socio-economic damage inflicted by the outbreaks of infectious diseases and evaluation of effectiveness as regards anti-epidemic and therapeutic interventions. Carried out has been assessment of economic and social losses which resulted from outbreaks of Crimean hemorrhagic fever in the Southern Federal District of Russia inclusive of the data on morbidity rates over the period of 1999-2010. Major economic damage is factored by the labor forces loss consequent to fatal cases of infection. Such a method of prognostication based on DALY index has been implemented in the territory of the Russian Federation for the first time ever.