Abstract
Currently the crime rate is very alarming and reported in various mass and electronic media. The high crime rate in the Province of Nort Sumatra is very unsettling for the community. The purpose of this research is to get the result of forecasting the crime ratel in the 2021 - 2024 using Automatic Clustering And Fuzzy Logic Relationship (ACFLR) method. The advantage of this method is that the method has a high level of accuracy because the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value is relative small and the results of forecasting analysis obtained in 2021 there are 31522 cases, in 2022 are 31533 cases, in 2023 are 31574 cases and the last one in 2024 was 31602 cases. In addition, the prediction error rate MAPE obtained is 0,35 %
 
 Keywords: Crime rate, Automatic Clustering And Fuzzy Logic Relationship.
Highlights
Fuzzy time series is new concept for forecasting using fuzzy logic, namely time series forecasting problems that is able to provide an explanation of fuzzy data and is presented in linguistic values and the fuzzy time series captures patterns form past data and uses them to forecasting future data [8]-[12]
In 1993, Song and Chissom introduced the fuzzy time series method for the first time, which was alleg-edly able to fill the short comings of the time series method [4], [9]
It was concluded that the comparison of the ACFLR and ARIMA methods by Khairunnisa and Sunendiari showed that the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) level was the ACFLR method and the highest was the ARIMA method
Summary
Forecasting serves to predict future event based on scientifically analyzed past data [2], [8]. In 2009 Chen, Wang and pan introduced a new method, the method Automatic Clustering And Fuzzy Logic Relationship (ACFLR) [1]. The varying levels of crime in North Sumatra Province are very disturbing for the surrounding community. Based on information from the Central Statistics Agency, Nort Sumatra is one of the areas with the highest crime percentage in Indonesia, with a crime rate at the provincial/polda level in 2017. In 2019 the North Sumatra police recorded a crime rate of 30831 cases and was ranked second at the National level and in 2020 recorded 32990 cases and was ranked first Nationally [7]. Researchers will apply the Automatic Clustering And Fuzzy Logic Relationship (ACFLR) method to predict the crime rate in North Sumatera Province with the hope that the forecast results have high accuracy, so thvt they can control the crime rate in the future
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