Abstract
Abstract: The objective of this work was to develop agrometeorological models for the forecasting of the annual yields of Arabic coffee (Coffea arabica), using monthly water deficits (DEFs) during the coffee cycle, in important locations in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. For the construction of the models, a meteorological data set spanning of 18 years and multiple linear regressions were used. The models were calibrated in high- and low-yield seasons due to the high-biennial yields in Brazil. All calibrated models for high- and low-yield seasons were accurate and significant at 5% probability, with mean absolute percentage errors ≤2.9%. The minimum forecasting period for yield is six months for southern Minas Gerais and Cerrado Mineiro. In high-yield seasons, water deficits affect more the reproductive stage of coffee and, in low-yield seasons, they affect more the vegetative stage of the crop.
Highlights
Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer with 45.563,2 thousand sacks per year (Amarasinghe et al, 2015; Acompanhamento..., 2017), and few studies have forecasted yields as functions of the climatic conditions (Aparecido et al, 2015)
Assuming a DEF of zero during the cycle, an average yield in Cerrado Mineiro region (CEMG) would be 51.24 sacks ha-1, which is 20% higher than in SOMG (Figure 4 C). These values are similar to those reported by Fernandes et al (2012), who found that the yield of coffee was usually higher in CEMG than in SOMG
To synthesize the information of the effect of DEFs on coffee yield, we identified the monthly DEFs of higher frequency in the yield forecasts of the 20 top designs for each location (Figure 6 A and B)
Summary
Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer with 45.563,2 thousand sacks per year (Amarasinghe et al, 2015; Acompanhamento..., 2017), and few studies have forecasted yields as functions of the climatic conditions (Aparecido et al, 2015). DEFs affect the amount of moisture extracted by roots, the spatial distribution of the root system, canopy size, and fruit growth of coffee plants (Amarasinghe et al, 2015). Reductions of coffee yields are mostly due to DEFs because the water stress after fertilisation affect fruit growth (Camargo, 2010). The effects of climate on crop yields can be evaluated with crop models (Shao et al, 2015). These models can help farmers to make decisions on achieving a sustainable agriculture (Syvertsen & Garcia-Sanchez, 2014)
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