Forecasting of Population Narcotization under the Implementation of a Drug Use Reduction Policy

Sergey Mityagin,Alexander Boukhanovsky,Carlos Gershenson

doi:10.1155/2020/9135024

Sergey Mityagin, Alexander Boukhanovsky + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/9135024

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Abstract

In this paper, we present an approach to drug addiction simulation and forecasting in the medium and long terms in cities having a high population density and a high rate of social communication. Drug addiction forecasting is one of the basic components of the antidrug policy, giving informational and analytic support both at the regional and at the governmental level. However, views on the drug consumption problem vary in different regions, and as a consequence, several approaches to antidrug policy implementation exist. Thereby, notwithstanding the fact that the phenomenology of the population narcotization process is similar in the different regions, approaches to the modeling of drug addiction may also substantially differ for different kinds of antidrug policies. This paper presents a survey of the available antidrug policies and the corresponding approaches to the simulation of population narcotization. This article considers the approach to the construction of the regression model of anesthesia on the main components formed on the basis of indicators of social and economic development. The substantiation of the chosen method is given, which is associated with a significant correlation of indicators, which characterizes the presence of a small number of superfactors. This allows us to form a conclusion about the general level of development of the region as the main factor determining the drug addiction. A new model is proposed for one of the most widespread antidrug policies, namely, the drug use reduction policy. The model helps determine the significant factors of population narcotization and allows to estimate its damage. The model is tested successfully using St. Petersburg data.

Highlights

Drug addiction is a problem that affects various spheres of social life, both at the regional and at the national level, as it deeply influences the socioeconomic development of a given territory and the cultural, emotional, and psychological state of the society.Despite the obvious fact that the spreading of drug addiction as well as drug trafficking affects both the standard of living and the society’s survival conditions, at present, there is no common approach to the problem
This paper presents and discusses an approach to the simulation of population narcotization processes that is based on the usage of both microlevel and macrolevel models. e macrolevel model takes into account the features of the given antidrug policy implemented in the territory and the features of the key indicator accounting system. e microlevel model, by contrast, takes into account common phenomenological features of drug spreading in the society
In the event of drug use by people of the group H or R, they pass into the phenomenological state D, which in turn can be divided into two groups: a group L of drug users without drug addiction or having psychological addiction forms only and a group N of drug users having more serious physical addiction forms. e transition of an individual to an appropriate phenomenological state is determined by the probability of his/her transition between states

Summary

Introduction

Drug addiction is a problem that affects various spheres of social life, both at the regional and at the national level, as it deeply influences the socioeconomic development of a given territory and the cultural, emotional, and psychological state of the society. Us, approaches to the simulation and forecasting of processes of population narcotization, on the one hand, should take into account features of the particular antidrug policy implemented in the given territory and, on the other hand, should be based on the common phenomenological aspects of drug addiction. For this reason, this paper presents and discusses an approach to the simulation of population narcotization processes that is based on the usage of both microlevel and macrolevel models. From the practical point of view, antidrug activities can range from the harder ones (use reduction) to the less hard ones (harm reduction): police supervision of street drug trade, police raids, precursor trade restriction, arrest for minor violations, drug testing, and intervention to the private life of drug users, such as treating and rehabilitating them

Overview of Drug Forecasting Models

Multifactor Forecasting Models of Drug Addiction

The Macrolevel Matrix Model of Population Narcotization

Forecasting

Findings

10. Discussion