Forecasting of Natural Gas Consumption in Poland Based on ARIMA-LSTM Hybrid Model

Anna Manowska,Joachim Pielot,Artur Dylong,Aurelia Rybak

doi:10.3390/en14248597

Anna Manowska, Joachim Pielot + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/en14248597

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Journal: Energies	Publication Date: Dec 20, 2021
Citations: 22	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Silesian University of Technology

Abstract

Natural gas is one of the main energy sources in Poland and accounts for about 15% of the primary energy consumed in the country. Poland covers only 1/5 of its demand from domestic deposits. The rest is imported from Russia, Germany, Norway, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, and Central Asia. An important issue concerning the market of energy resources is the question of the direct impact of the prices of energy resources on the income of exporting and importing countries. It should also be remembered that unexpected and large fluctuations are detrimental to both exporters and importers of primary fuels. The article analyzes natural gas deposits in Poland, raw material trade and proposes a model for forecasting the volume of its consumption, which takes into account historical consumption, prices of energy resources and assumptions of Poland’s energy policy until 2040. A hybrid model was built by combining ARIMA with LSTM artificial neural networks. The validity of the constructed model was assessed using ME, MAE, RMSE and MSE. The average percentage error is 2%, which means that the model largely represents the real gas consumption course. The obtained forecasts indicate an increase in consumption by 2040.

Highlights

Accepted: 16 December 2021The climate and energy policy of the European Union (EU), including the pursuit of EU climate neutrality by 2050, has a major impact on shaping the national energy strategy [1,2,3,4]
The ARIMA models and the LSTM artificial neural networks were used to forecast the volume of natural gas consumption, which were used to forecast the residuals obtained from the ARIMA model (1,1,0)
In addition to historical consumption, the mathematical model includes a forecast of prices of primary fuels, i.e., crude oil, natural gas and thermal coal, in imports to the European Union

Summary

Introduction

The climate and energy policy of the European Union (EU), including the pursuit of EU climate neutrality by 2050, has a major impact on shaping the national energy strategy [1,2,3,4]. Poland has adopted the following goals [5,6]: Published: 20 December 2021. Increasing energy efficiency, by saving primary energy consumption by 13.6 Mtoe in. 2010–2020 compared to the forecast of fuel and energy demand in 2007; Increasing the share of energy from renewable sources in the gross final energy consumption to 15% by 2020; Contribution to the EU-wide reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 20% (compared to 1990) by 2020 (in 2005 the levels were: −21% in the EU ETS sectors and −10% in the non-ETS)

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