Abstract
Forecasting of monthly streamflow for the White Nile River at Malakal station is a crucial aspect for different water resources projects in both countries Sudan and South Sudan. For instance, the operation of Jabal al Awliya dam in central Sudan entirely depends upon the measured flow of this station. In this paper, linear stochastic models well-known as seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average [SARIMA] models were used to model and forecast monthly flow of White Nile River in Malakal station, South Sudan. For the analysis, monthly flow data for the years running from 1970 up to 2013 were used. A scrutiny of the original series proves a yearly seasonal pattern. The results of Phillips-Perron (PP) test and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test on the streamflow series show that this series is not stationary. This non-stationarity was removed using first order seasonal differencing (i.e. twelve-monthly) preceding to the development of the model. The SARIMA (1,0,1)×(0,1,1)12 model was selected as the most suitable for modeling and forecasting monthly flow for White Nile River. It was found that the model was proper to forecast three successive years of monthly flow, which may help the experts to institute priorities for various water resources management in both countries.
Highlights
The Nile River is the longest river in the earth planet, nearly 6700 long, with total catchment area of about 3.2 million
The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Hannan-Quinn Criterion (HQ) criterion suggest that a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) (1,0,1)×(0,1,1)12 should be fit for the monthly flow
The model has passed all tests, and the results reveal the ability of SARIMA to provide accurate forecast
Summary
The Nile River is the longest river in the earth planet, nearly 6700 long, with total catchment area of about 3.2 million. The entire flow of the Nile River is about 84.1 billion m3 at Aswan dam, Egypt. The Blue Nile and the Atbara River contributes about 61 billion m3, or 72% of the overall flow. The remaining 28% is derived from the White Nile River. The contribution of White Nile is very essential as it gives a continuous flow throughout the year [2]. The White Nile originates from the Equatorial Lakes region in central part of Africa. The White Nile enters South Sudan at Nimule city and goes through Juba city, the capital, to spread out in large swamps called the Sudd region. The swamps are considered as one of the largest wetland areas in the world, covering an area of more than 30000 km
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