Forecasting of Gold Prices Volatility with Symmetric and Asymmetric Volatility Models

Abstract

With this paper the author forecasts the out-of-sample volatility of gold price changes in Turkey. Looking at the both the symmetric and the asymmetric evaluation criteria, GJR-GARCH model is the best fitted model for forecasting gold price volatility in Turkey. The GJR-GARCH model findings reveal a negative shock asymmetry for gold prices. Thus, it shows that positive news in the market affects the volatility of gold prices in the next period more than negative news.