Forecasting of disaster floods in Dniester valley

Abstract

In recent years, two catastrophic floods have occurred in the Carpathian region and in Podillya: one on July 23–28, 2008, and the other on June 20–24, 2020. Both caused enormous damage to the environment and the population, which was widely reported in the media. To be prepared for natural disasters, you need to learn to predict them, that is, to know in what area they occur, what will be the height of the rise of water and when it will happen. From this triad, the first two components have already learned to predict, but the third has not yet. The article considers the possibility of a weather forecast, which was confirmed during the flood of June 20–24, 2020. O.M. Adamenko and D.O. Zorin plotted global climate change over the period of the Earth's history from its birth 4.567 billion years ago to the present. It turned out that the warm and cold periods alternated periodically, from the Galactic Year (225–250 million years), of which there were 19, to the current 11 summer cycles of solar activity. A total of 13 orders of cycles were identified, which interfere in the form of sinusoids, determining the periodicity of geological events. Geotectonic epochs of the 2nd order (50–70 million years) are superimposed on the cyclicity of the 1st order – galactic years – these are Karelian, Baikal, Caledonian, Hercynian, Pacific and Alpine tectonic-magmatic epochs, which are divided into parts of the 3rd (30–40 million years) and 4th (10–15 million) orders. The following cycles – 5 (3–5 million years), 6 (150–140 thousand years) and 7 (10–20 thousand years) are associated with a large Cenozoic cooling, which ended with the Quaternary glaciation. 8 (1–4 thousand years) and 9 (500–600 years) cycles reflect changes in warming and cooling in the quarter. And then the analysis of events is reconstructed on the basis of archaeological and chronicle data: from the beginning of our era to the XII century. Warming of the IX cycle continued – a small climatic optimum and a small ice age (XIII – XVII centuries). Since the XIX century modern warming began with clear 33-year fluctuations of the X cycle. Since 1881, instrumental observations have appeared at meteorological stations and hydro posts. XI (20–15–11 years), XII (5–6 years) and XIII (3–4 years) cycles appeared. Against the background of 33 annual fluctuations in the global climate, 11 annual cycles and catastrophic floods of 1911, 1927, 1941, 1955, 1969, 1980, 1988, 2002, 2008 appeared, and the catastrophic flood of 2020 predicted by O.M. Adamenko and D.O. Zorin. Thus, it is possible to learn to predict the time of the next catastrophic flood.