Abstract
The outbreak of COVID-19 has become a global public health event. Many researchers have proposed many epidemiological models to predict the outbreak trend of COVID-19, but all use confirmed cases to predict “onset cases.” In this article, a total of 5434 cases were collected from National Health Commission and other provincial Health Commission in China, spanning from 1 December 2019 to 23 February 2020. We studied the delayed distribution of patients from onset to be confirmed. The delay is divided into two stages, which takes about 15 days or even longer. Therefore, considering the right truncation of the data, we proposed a “predict-in-advance” method, used the number of “visiting hospital cases” to predict the number of “onset cases.” The results not only show that our prediction shortens the delay of the second stage, but also the predicted value of onset cases is quite close to the real value of onset cases, which can effectively predict the epidemic trend of sudden infectious diseases, and provide an important reference for the government to formulate control measures in advance.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-020-11859-w.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callMore From: Environmental science and pollution research international
Disclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
