Forecasting of boro rice production in Bangladesh: An ARIMA approach

Nmf Rahman

doi:10.3329/jbau.v8i1.6406

Abstract

The study was undertaken to examine the best fitted ARIMA model that could be used to make efficient forecast boro rice production in Bangladesh from 2008-09 to 2012-13. It appeared from the study that local, modern and total boro time series are 1st order homogenous stationary. It is found from the study that the ARIMA (0,1,0) ARIMA (0,1,3) and ARIMA (0,1,2) are the best for local, modern and total boro rice production respectively. It is observed from the analysis that short term forecasts are more efficient for ARIMA models. The production uncertainty of boro rice can be minimizing if production can be forecasted well and necessary steps can be taken against losses. The government and producer as well use ARIMA methods to forecast future production more accurately in the short run. Keywords: Production; ARIMA model; Forecasting. DOI: 10.3329/jbau.v8i1.6406J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 8(1): 103-112, 2010

Highlights

Agro-based developing country like Bangladesh is striving hard for rapid development of its economy
The time series data of local, modern and total boro rice production were modeled by Box-Jenkins type stochastic autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process
The autocorrelation functions of 1st differenced time series of local, modern and total boro rice production are presented in Fig. 2, Fig. 4 and Fig. 6 respectively

Summary

Introduction

Agro-based developing country like Bangladesh is striving hard for rapid development of its economy. The crop sub-sector dominates with 14.32 percent in GDP of which rice alone contributes about 53 percent. In Bangladesh 63 percent of the labour force is directly engaged in agriculture and 78 percent of total crop is devoted to rice production, the country has still a chronic shortage of food-grain (BBS.2003). Boro - a Bengali term originated from the Sanskrit word 'BOROB'. It refers to a special cultivation of rice in low land pockets during November-May; taking advantage of the residual water in the field after harvest of Kharif crop, longer moisture retentivity of the soil and surface water stored in the near by ditches (Singh et al 2003a). The yield in 2001/2002 was 4.9 ton/ha (Singh et al 2003b)

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Conclusion