Forecasting of Area and Production of Cotton in India and Karnataka Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

Cotton is most important commercial crop in India and since 2015–16 India stands first in both area and production of cotton in the world. The study focuses on the forecasting of the area and production of cotton in India and Karnataka using auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The time series data on area and production of cotton in India and Karnataka for the period of 60 years from 1955–56 to 2015–16 was analysed. The study revealed that ARIMA (0, 1, 0) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) are the best fitted models for forecasting area and production of cotton in India respectively and ARIMA (0, 1, 0) is the best fitted model for forecasting both area and production of cotton in Karnataka. Based on selected models the forecasts for 2016–17 to 2019–20 are calculated. The analysis shows that if the present trend continues, the cotton area and production in India in the year 2019–20 will be 122.91 lakh hectares and 316.65 lakh bales(170 kg each) and it will be 8.52 lakh hectares and 24.81 lakh bales (170 kg each) respectively in Karnataka.