Forecasting Non-Oil and Gas Exports in Indonesia Using Double and Triple Exponential Smoothing Methods

Abstract

Non-oil and gas exports could be forecasted using exponential smoothing for future periods. This study examines non-oil and gas export data in Indonesia from January 2015 to May 2021, indicating trends and seasonality. Based on the data characteristics, the obtained data were analyzed using Holt's double exponential smoothing method and triple exponential smoothing with multiplicative and additives Holt-Winters. The MAPE for all three models is less than 10%, indicating that the method is very good and could be used to forecast the next period. Using MAPE as a comparison, the best model for non-oil and gas exports is the additive Holt-Winters method triple exponential smoothing, which has the lowest MAPE of any model. The best method was employed to forecast data, making it possible for us to anticipate the pattern of non-oil and gas exports. This forecast data could be used as the basis for policymakers' decision-making. The forecast results using this method indicate that the value of non-oil exports will increase for the next period.