Forecasting non‐seasonal time series with missing observations

Abstract

AbstractMost forecasting methods are based on equally spaced data. In the case of missing observations the methods have to be modified. We have considered three smoothing methods: namely, simple exponential smoothing; double exponential smoothing; and Holt's method. We present a new, unified approach to handle missing data within the smoothing methods. This approach is compared with previously suggested modifications. The comparison is done on 12 real, non‐seasonal time series, and shows that the smoothing methods, properly modified, usually perform well if the time series have a moderate number of missing observations.