Forecasting Nighttime Frost-induced Black Ice Formation on Bridges Using Atmospheric Data

Abstract

Background Faced with the tragedies caused by black ice in winter, especially on bridges, it is imperative to forecast black ice for preventive maintenance and to notify drivers approaching the dangerous spots. Methods In this study, three different machine learning algorithms—Deep Neural Network (DNN), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM)—were employed to predict nighttime black ice induced by frost on three bridges in Korea. Input data consisted of atmospheric data (air temperature, relative humidity, dew point, and differences between air temperature and relative humidity over two consecutive days) provided by the weather agency. Results To assess the employed models, reference data were generated based on the physical principle that ice forms when the pavement temperature is lower than the dew point temperature and negative. The pavement temperature was obtained using an infrared surface temperature sensor mounted on a maintenance patrol vehicle. Consequently, DNN and RF showed higher performance with an accuracy of 95%, followed by SVM with an accuracy of 92.5%. Conclusion Due to the use of easily obtainable atmospheric data, the findings of this study can be practically applied to preventive maintenance and driver information, thereby enhancing traffic safety.