Abstract

The objective of this research is to propose the appropriate forecasting models for the analysis of carbon dioxide emissions classified by major economic sectors in Thailand: the power generation sector, the transportation sector, the industrial sector, and other economic sectors. The twenty years of monthly data from 2001 to 2020 was collected by the Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy. Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach is used to analysed the data in order to obtain the best fit models for each of the economic sectors. Model checking is presented using R2, adjusted-R2 and AIC. The actual data in 2021 was used to illustrate the quality of the optimal forecasting models.

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