Abstract
Cockle farmed in Malaysia are from Anadara genes and Arcidae family which known as blood cockle. Normally, it was found in the farmed around mangrove estuary areas in the muddy and sandy shores. This study aims to predict the production of cockle to ensure sure the cockle supplies are synchronised with the demand. Then, based on the demand, the prediction result could be used to make decision either to import or export the cockle. The data were taken from the Department of Fisheries Malaysia (DFM) and it has cyclic pattern data. There are two methods used in this study which are Holt-Linear method and Auto regressive moving average (ARMA). In determining the best fitted model between the two methods, the mean square error (MSE) values will be compared and the lowest value of MSE will assign as the best model. Result shows that ARMA(1,1) is the best model compared to Holt-Linear. Therefore, ARMA(1,1) model will be used to forecast the production of cockle in Malaysia.
Highlights
The cockles farmed in Malaysia and Thailand are bivalves from genes Anadara, family Arcidae
The main purpose of this study is to predict the production of cockle so that the Department of Fisheries Malaysia (DFM) can come out with a plan to increase the production of cockle if the cockle supply is less than current demand or to export the cockle if the stocks of cockle are more than current demand
The data are collected from Department of Fisheries Malaysia (DFM)
Summary
The cockles farmed in Malaysia and Thailand are bivalves from genes Anadara, family Arcidae. Cockles have a medium sized clam-liked shell round with radiating ridges. The range of yearly capture production that reported by FAO’s Yearbook of Fishery Statistics in 1999 for China, Taiwan and Korea Republic are around 1415mt in 1995 to 6503mt in 1999. The ranges of yearly aquaculture production for China, Korea Republic, Thailand and Malaysia in 1999 are around 252233mt in 1995 to 315811mt. In 1973, Malaysia exported seed for culture in Satun Province which is a part of Southern Thailand. The state of Perak started culture for A.granosa. The disposals of cockle shell increased due to cockle trade that continuously growing. The cockle trade produces a generation of abundant waste shell. There are quite considerable studies were carried out to study the time series in the world [5, 6, 7, 8, 9]
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